There comes a time in every Doctor’s tenure when it begins to sink in that another ending is nigh. Thanks to showrunner Chris Chibnall’s scheduling and the pandemic, Jodie Whittaker’s time in the role has already been as thoroughly prolonged as Capaldi’s, which also extended across a year with nothing but a holiday special to tide us over. But will she leave soon?

While Capaldi reigned for four years from regeneration to regeneration (Christmas 2013 to Christmas 2017, with eight months between regeneration and first episode), Whittaker’s two shorter series plus two holiday specials have already spanned three and a half years (Christmas 2017 to now, with about nine and a half months between first appearance and first outing). Even if we believe reports that her third series will air later this year, that puts her tenure at no less than a full four years, like Capaldi’s.

But here’s where we get into sheer speculation. As always, the Doctor Who production team and the BBC are being incredibly tight-lipped about everything they possibly can. We know that Series 13 will be reduced even further to a mere eight episodes, but little else (aside from the identity of an incoming Companion).

If we take past experiences as a guide—and I believe that is reasonable—then we can say that it’s highly likely that Whittaker will be leaving the TARDIS at the end of the upcoming series, as most modern Doctors have. The regeneration will almost certainly be at the end of a holiday special, which given the trend under Chibnall’s leadership means New Year’s 2022, breaking that four-year mark by a week.

With the announcement of the reduced length of the series listed as eight episodes instead of “the usual eleven,” we must conclude that one of the eight will be a holiday special. Presuming, then, that Episode 8 will air on New Year’s 2022, which is a Saturday, we can surmise that if they have secured a Saturday time slot for the rest of the series, Episode 7 would air no later than 18 Dec 2021 (since they won’t be putting an episode on Christmas Day). Counting backwards, we thus land on 06 Nov 2021 as the latest likely air date for the first episode of Series 13.

That means we have less than four months to wait for more new Doctor Who on our screens, right? Probably. The official statements have said later in 2021, so I think it’s safe to assume first that there will be a New Year’s special, and second that the special will cap off the series like Resolution rather than beginning it like Spyfall did. Other than that, all bets are off. Including about regeneration.

For my part, though, I’d be willing to put some money on it that Whittaker will leave this coming New Year’s. Although the Doctor is certainly a plum role, actors almost never want to get tied down to one thing. Yes, her series have had fewer episodes, and perhaps had COVID not ravaged the planet she might have considered staying for another series, but as things stand, I can’t imagine she’d want to stay any longer.

As for who might replace her, I have even less idea than usual. I’d love to see a woman of color in the role, but I’m not holding my breath. I know that when the time comes, I’ll probably be excited for new episodes and for that sense of freshness that a change of Doctors always brings, but until then—four months or four years—I hardly care. Perhaps my sense of anticipation is just one more casualty of COVID.